Today's AI-Spotted Opportunities
Where the crowd prices an outcome vs. what futures math implies. Click any card to inspect.
$1,000 rule simulation · 30 days
Deterministic expected-value path, not a forecast or backtest. Uses today's condition, executable quote and fees each day; stakes resize at exhaustion.
No executable rule simulation available. Showing untraded cash, not invented returns.
Hover or focus the chart to read values. A table view follows for screen readers.
| Day | With paper rule | Untraded |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| 10 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| 20 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| 30 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
Safety hedge simulator
YES ticket plus an illustrative short futures hedge. Nothing is placed.
Each short P&L uses its own terminal return from the same underlying spot. Both legs can profit or lose depending on strike and entry. Funding, basis, fees on futures and liquidation are not modeled. Short futures losses can be unlimited.
Automation rules
When a condition is met, do a paper action. Simulated only — nothing executes in the background.
Load a market first — rules watch a specific market.
No rules yet. A saved rule is checked against the market list below and simulated — never executed.
Telegram companion
not linkedOptional. Links this browser session to one Telegram chat: the mini app mirrors your paper state, and the bot can explain markets, place a $100 paper copy trade, and show an illustrative hedge. Paper only — the bot cannot move real money or control anything else in your account.
Your paper desk
Balances, open orders and history — server-persisted.
Loading your desk…
Ask the explainer
Educational answers about markets and your paper tickets. Not financial advice.
What’s real and what’s illustrative
Read this before trusting any number in the app.
- Real
Paper only, always
Every order in this app is a paper order. No real money is deposited, risked or moved, and there is no connection to any brokerage or exchange account.
- Real
Live vs demo, labeled
Market data is labeled Live when it comes from a public venue read and Demo when it is simulated or the venue is unreachable. Never trade a real decision on a demo row.
- Illustrative
Fees follow the documented formula; rebates stay conditional
Live Polymarket markets use Polymarket's documented taker formula (shares × feeRate × p × (1−p), crypto rate 0.07 per their official docs); demo markets use an illustrative 0.02 rate. Maker rebates (documented 20% for crypto) are conditional, never guaranteed, and never modeled as income here.
- Illustrative
Binary loss is capped; futures loss is not
An unhedged binary position can lose at most what you paid. A futures hedge has no such cap — funding, basis moves and liquidation can lose more than the hedge notional. The hedge chart is illustrative, not a protection guarantee.
- Illustrative
Probabilities are model estimates
The futures-implied probability uses a zero-drift lognormal model, and only exists when a market is matched to live futures data by strike and expiry. Unmatched markets show the model estimate as unavailable — the market's own price is never dressed up as an independent estimate or an arbitrage signal.
- Illustrative
Rules and automation are simulated
Rules run as illustrative 30-day simulations inside your session. Nothing executes in the background and no notification implies a real fill.